Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NO 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis ran ob at NO 42 for 11 yards (23-D.Hellams; 25-T.Allgeier).
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 67%
(10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 15 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%
(8:35) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 18 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to NO 15, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 17 for 2 yards (25-T.Allgeier). PENALTY on NO-31-J.Howden, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NO 15.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EPp(convert) 70%
(:28) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to ATL 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 13 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%
(9:05) 32-K.Kroeger punts 35 yards to ATL 14, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 19 for 5 yards (43-M.Davis).
-
Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%
(2:00) 45-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-44-I.Stalbird, Defensive Offside, declined.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%
(:56) 19-B.Grupe 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 30%
(:34) Direct snap to 84-F.Franks. 84-F.Franks up the middle to ATL 49 for 2 yards (21-J.Reid).
-
Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 71%
(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
-
Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(7:38) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Vele (36-R.Harrison).
-
Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EPp(convert) 74%
(5:46) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to NO 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 41 for -1 yards (28-M.Ford).
-
Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 37%
(3:40) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill left guard to ATL 48 for 2 yards (55-K.Elliss; 93-K.Street).
-
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(14:19) 7-T.Hill right tackle to ATL 5 for 2 yards (56-L.Floyd).
-
Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 96%
(12:17) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 14 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(9:32) 32-K.Kroeger punts 32 yards to ATL 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on ATL-37-C.Bryant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 37.
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 60%
(5:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 71 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.12 EPp(convert) 28%
(3:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 11-D.Pettis to NO 43 for 14 yards (20-D.Alford).
-
Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 43 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%
(3:09) 13-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to NO 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-40-J.Bertrand.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 29 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.87 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 84%
(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts at ATL -8. Touchback.
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(14:04) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to BUF 29, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 37 for 8 yards (23-J.Reed). PENALTY on BUF-37-J.Hancock, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 29.
-
Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 72Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(12:46) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 31 for 3 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(4:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(2:48) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to HOU 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:52) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to BUF 5, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-34-A.Carter.
-
Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 69%
(11:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 26-Ty.Johnson ran ob at HOU 14 for 23 yards.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%
(6:56) (Shotgun) 27-W.Marks left tackle to BUF 18 for 6 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%
(2:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q3 HOU 4th & 16 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(9:15) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BUF 19, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 12 for -7 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at BUF 19.
-
Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:36) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to HOU 47, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
-
Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 37%
(5:55) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to BUF 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
-
Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(:21) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 90%
(10:14) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 25 for -2 yards (90-S.Rankins).
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(9:21) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to BUF 27, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir to BUF 38 for 11 yards (45-E.Speed).
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%
(5:48) 15-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 55 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 61%
(2:57) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to BUF 14, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 18 for 4 yards (44-B.Brooks).
-
Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 22 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 91%
(:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 9. 2-C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). Penalty on BUF-13-G.Davis, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 55%
(3:50) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to SF 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
-
Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 42%
(12:24) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to CAR 44 for 3 yards (99-T.Wharton).
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 64%
(8:13) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(2:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
-
Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%
(1:04) 14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:25) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SF 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%
(12:33) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
-
Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%
(9:25) 14-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 68 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(4:54) 7-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to CAR 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 34 for 6 yards (45-N.Martin).
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 39 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 62%
(2:47) 10-R.Fitzgerald 57 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
-
Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 44 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 49%
(2:00) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to CAR 41 for 3 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 98-D.Wonnum).
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 58%
(12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to LV 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to LV 27 for 44 yards (6-A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-6-A.Cole, Tripping, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 19 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23%
(7:06) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to CLE 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-50-J.Bobenmoyer.
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 16 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(5:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to LV 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:17) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to CLE 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%
(11:33) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%
(9:16) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(7:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to LV 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(2:30) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to CLE 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 28 for 8 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(1:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to LV 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-A.Bachman to LV 23 for 1 yard (9-G.Delpit; 5-R.Jenkins).
-
Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 55%
(11:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 48 for -9 yards (sack split by 99-C.Thomas and 96-M.Collins).
-
Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%
(9:14) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:18) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to CLE 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 28 for 5 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 23.
-
Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(3:46) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to LV 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 35 for 9 yards (41-C.Edmonds).
-
Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 91%
(:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to CLE 33, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%
(5:16) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 72 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to LV 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 29 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%
(:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 19 yards to LV 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
-
Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to KC 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-59-C.McDonald, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(6:32) 29-K.Hunt right guard to KC 44 for 1 yard (53-G.Pratt).
-
Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%
(2:24) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 15 for no gain (16-A.Dulin).
-
Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%
(:10) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 58%
(13:29) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to IND 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 37 for 21 yards (59-C.McDonald).
-
Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 96%
(9:16) 12-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
-
Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 57%
(6:27) 14-M.Araiza punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 26 for 19 yards (21-J.Hicks).
-
Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(1:29) 12-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
-
Q4 IND 4th & 12 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(14:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to KC 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 44 for 7 yards (25-R.Thomas; 59-B.Johnson).
-
Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 57%
(7:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to KC 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
-
Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(5:55) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to IND 40, Center-41-J.Winchester. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 49 for 9 yards (6-B.Cook).
-
Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 50 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 33%
(4:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to KC 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 14 for 3 yards (38-C.Lammons). PENALTY on KC-8-K.Fulton, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 11.
-
Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 43 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 51%
(3:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 19 yards (0-C.Bynum).
-
Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 7 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(:03) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q1 ARI 4th & 14 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%
(9:48) 39-M.Haack punts 50 yards to JAX 3, impetus ends at JAX 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-27-A.Davis-Gaither.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 75%
(13:01) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(6:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to ARI 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
-
Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(:17) 38-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.
-
Q3 ARI 4th & 14 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(11:12) 39-M.Haack punts 54 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at ARI 27 for 43 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 16-M.Melton).
-
Q3 ARI 4th & 18 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%
(1:43) 39-M.Haack punts 38 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 73%
(13:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to ARI 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.
-
Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:40) 39-M.Haack punts 65 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-M.Melton. ** Injury Update: JAX-11-P.Washington has returned to the game.
-
Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 72 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 33%
(2:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 4-G.Dortch (25-R.Lane) [47-D.Gardeck].
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 19 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%
(1:44) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Patrick. Penalty on JAX, Illegal Formation, declined.
-
Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Carter up the middle to ARI 37 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard).
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 70%
(12:58) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 48%
(5:12) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to GB 2, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
-
Q1 GB 4th & 19 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to MIN 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price to MIN 24 for 11 yards (39-Z.Anderson; 59-T.Hopper).
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%
(10:31) 27-J.Mason up the middle to GB 18 for -1 yards (55-K.Enagbare).
-
Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%
(2:28) 17-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 41Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 52%
(:15) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
-
Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%
(11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(8:55) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to GB 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
-
Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 57%
(4:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to MIN 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%
(12:17) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 21Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 90%
(7:40) 17-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%
(5:53) 19-D.Whelan punts 32 yards to MIN 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
-
Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 55%
(12:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to CIN 6, Center-47-J.Ashby. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 19 for 13 yards (22-C.Woods).
-
Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 35Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 69%
(6:41) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
-
Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(5:38) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to CIN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby. 15-C.Jones to CIN 24 for 1 yard (15-M.Mapu).
-
Q1 CIN 4th & 15 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 43%
(:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 35 yards to NE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
-
Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 31%
(4:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 40 yards to NE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner. 25-M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (26-T.Anderson).
-
Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 89%
(:33) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(13:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-38-D.Ivey.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 99%
(7:54) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CIN 1 for no gain (99-M.Murphy; 58-J.Ossai).
-
Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(5:05) 8-R.Rehkow punts 39 yards to NE 24, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 84%
(1:09) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(13:10) 8-R.Rehkow punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.29 EPp(convert) 70% p(FG) 99%
(5:58) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 33 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%
(1:56) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 63 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(1:14) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard to CIN 41 for 4 yards (31-C.Woodson; 7-C.Davis).
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 57 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley to NE 45 for 12 yards (25-M.Jones) [21-J.Hawkins]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at NE 45 for 12 yards [21-J.Hawkins].
-
Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 26 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.83 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%
(:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki (25-M.Jones) [44-K.Chaisson].
-
Q1 DET 4th & 19 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 42%
(8:02) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(6:31) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DET 47, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
-
Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%
(5:10) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to NYG 10, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%
(:03) 37-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(6:21) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to NYG 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 26 for 4 yards (82-R.Dwelley). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 22.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EPp(convert) 74%
(4:10) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to DET 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-46-Z.Barnes.
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%
(:42) 37-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
-
Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 55%
(10:56) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-25-J.Saylors.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 47%
(7:23) 12-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to DET 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 52%
(9:54) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 6 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(2:59) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson (23-R.Ya-Sin).
-
Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 41 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 60%
(:33) 39-J.Bates 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
-
Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 28%
(14:09) 14-A.McNamara punts 35 yards to BAL 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
-
Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 73Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(12:00) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 29 for 2 yards (91-J.Briggs; 44-J.Sherwood).
-
Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(9:49) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NYJ 8, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 21 for 13 yards (27-T.Tampa).
-
Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%
(4:09) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to BAL 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-32-I.Davis.
-
Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 87Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 58%
(2:24) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to NYJ 38, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 40 for 2 yards (27-T.Tampa).
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%
(14:20) 14-A.McNamara punts 29 yards to BAL 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.
-
Q2 BAL 4th & 17 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(10:45) 11-J.Stout punts 74 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 21 for 8 yards (88-C.Kolar; 32-T.Simpson).
-
Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%
(1:39) 33-T.Loop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
-
Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%
(:33) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
-
Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 58Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59%
(6:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Metchie.
-
Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(3:35) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%
(14:46) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%
(9:39) 33-T.Loop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 72 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 63%
(3:19) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to NYJ 5, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
-
Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 89 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 31%
(1:47) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 10-A.Lazard.
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 9 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%
(:45) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
-
Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 37%
(11:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Williams.
-
Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(7:13) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to PHI 24, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:00) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to DAL 28, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:45) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to DAL 7, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 8 for 1 yard (42-S.Mondon).
-
Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 88Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 48%
(11:38) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to PHI 26, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 41 for 15 yards (40-H.Luepke; 29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on PHI-0-J.Uche, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%
(9:24) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to DAL 4, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-21-S.Brown.
-
Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%
(6:39) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 32%
(4:25) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to DAL 11, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 38Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 67%
(13:14) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
-
Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(5:25) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 12 for 10 yards (38-A.Clark; 14-M.Bell). FUMBLES (38-A.Clark), touched at PHI 7, RECOVERED by DAL-44-T.Sieg at PHI 8. PHI-87-X.Gipson was injured during the play.
-
Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Ferguson [3-N.Smith].
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 20 at the 81 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:44) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to DAL 32, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 32 for no gain. PENALTY on DAL-9-K.Turpin, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32.
-
Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 24 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%
(:03) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
-
Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(13:30) 19-T.Taylor punts 58 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 21 for 12 yards (92-D.Hardy).
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 81%
(8:55) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to CHI 30 for no gain (45-A.Ogbongbemiga; 26-N.Wright).
-
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(7:53) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams left end pushed ob at CHI 47 for 8 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(1:32) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end pushed ob at CHI 1 for 55 yards (31-K.Byard).
-
Q3 PIT 4th & 20 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(11:23) 3-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to CHI 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
-
Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 56%
(6:30) 3-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CHI 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
-
Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EPp(convert) 73%
(5:17) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 34 for 12 yards (43-C.Jones).
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 60 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 63%
(4:46) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 9 at the 77 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:01) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to CHI 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-44-C.Bruener.
-
Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 53 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%
(1:36) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 47 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 42%
(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (9-J.Brisker).
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 56%
(12:09) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 84-G.Helm to SEA 32 for 10 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(5:53) 6-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 85%
(2:18) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:55) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 20 yards (36-J.Chestnut).
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 19 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(8:56) 3-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to TEN 45, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed to TEN 26 for 19 yards (44-M.Brown).
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(4:48) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 61%
(1:54) 36-J.Chestnut up the middle to SEA 40 for no gain (95-B.Pili; 42-D.Thomas).
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(11:47) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 35 for 4 yards (21-M.Robinson; 36-J.Chestnut). PENALTY on SEA-19-J.Bobo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 32.
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 66%
(10:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll. 17-C.Dike for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 59%
(13:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at TEN 46 for -5 yards (49-A.Key).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 49%
(11:30) 1-C.Ward up the middle to SEA 44 for 1 yard (95-B.Pili; 91-B.Murphy). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 14 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(5:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to TEN 38, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 56 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(4:17) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 11-V.Jefferson to SEA 45 for 11 yards (29-J.Jobe).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 41 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%
(2:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles up the middle to SEA 32 for 9 yards (42-D.Thomas).
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 27 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%
(1:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to SEA 18 for 9 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 42-D.Thomas).
-
Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%
(10:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 23 yards to LA 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 19 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LA 28, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.
-
Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 72Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62%
(1:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Shepard (1-E.Forbes).
-
Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 21Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%
(1:06) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
-
Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 62%
(13:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LA-9-M.Stafford, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at TB 40.
-
Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 79%
(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to LA 19 for 13 yards (30-J.Wallace).
-
Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(7:53) (Shotgun) 10-T.Bridgewater sacked at LA 27 for -9 yards (91-K.Turner).
-
Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 42%
(4:35) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
-
Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 74%
(2:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to LA 28, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-K.Williams to LA 36 for 8 yards (32-J.Hayes).
-
Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%
(13:40) 92-H.Mevis 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%
(9:37) (Shotgun) 10-T.Bridgewater sacked at LA 25 for -12 yards (8-J.Verse).
-
Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EPp(convert) 74%
(7:19) 42-E.Evans punts 14 yards to LA 48, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 50%
(5:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.
-
Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 65 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 15 yards (51-T.Reeder; 6-N.Hampton).