Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 15 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:57) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to BUF 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 24 for 4 yards (0-J.Sanders).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 84%
(7:18) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 17 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%
(13:07) 15-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 78%
(9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(5:51) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to BUF 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 0-K.Coleman to BUF 26 for 6 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 48-T.Incoom).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:27) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to CAR 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%
(13:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-X.Legette to BUF 24 for 11 yards (47-C.Benford).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(5:06) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to CAR 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 19 for 6 yards (37-J.Hancock).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 74 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58%
(3:26) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to BUF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:57) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to CAR 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 23 for 7 yards (39-C.Lewis).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%
(6:55) 8-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 62%
(4:44) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 17 for 8 yards (39-K.Jackson).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%
(:07) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 70%
(3:28) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to CHI 33 for 3 yards (33-J.Jones).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 89%
(1:11) 33-T.Loop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 61%
(:03) 8-C.Santos 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%
(10:08) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 56%
(8:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%
(3:38) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%
(9:55) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to CHI 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 81%
(5:10) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore.
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Q1 NE 4th & 18 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%
(8:49) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 62%
(3:22) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to CLE 12, Center-47-J.Ashby. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 19 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler; 15-M.Mapu). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 19.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NE 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%
(11:26) 25-A.Szmyt 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(7:44) 36-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(6:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 25-M.Jones to NE 34 for 8 yards (5-R.Jenkins; 33-R.Hickman).
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Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(4:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to NE 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 88%
(:02) 36-A.Borregales 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:20) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to NE 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 25-M.Jones. PENALTY on NE-39-R.Grant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 33.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 76Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(4:29) 44-H.Fannin right end to CLE 26 for 2 yards (2-H.Landry; 14-R.Spillane).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 12Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%
(12:18) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (0-C.Gonzalez).
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Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 15 yards to NE 26, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 72 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 27%
(3:25) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 34 for 6 yards (14-R.Spillane; 7-C.Davis).
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Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(10:36) 17-B.Aubrey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 18 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(5:57) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 38 for 13 yards (35-M.Liufau; 89-B.Spann-Ford).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 20 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 29%
(14:56) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to DEN 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to DAL 41, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EPp(convert) 75%
(2:25) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to DEN 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 28 for 13 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 85%
(10:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens ran ob at DEN 10 for 17 yards [99-Z.Allen]. DEN-99-Z.Allen was injured during the play.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%
(6:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 45%
(3:25) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to DEN 16, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 62 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 73%
(2:30) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 33 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 67 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(:35) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 21-R.Moss.
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Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EPp(convert) 75%
(13:37) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to PIT 15, Center-42-M.Orzech. 85-K.Williams to PIT 20 for 5 yards (16-B.Melton).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 20 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 63%
(8:46) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(3:30) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to GB 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 25-K.Nixon MUFFS catch, recovered by GB-39-Z.Anderson at GB 18.
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Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 61%
(14:55) 17-B.McManus 57 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 77%
(12:23) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(11:17) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to PIT 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 85-K.Williams pushed ob at PIT 36 for 16 yards (42-M.Orzech).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%
(5:56) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 57%
(4:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to PIT 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 85-K.Williams.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:12) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 23 for 3 yards (46-C.Kuntz). PENALTY on GB-20-J.Bullard, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 20.
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Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 94%
(10:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at PIT 10 for 7 yards (24-J.Porter).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 63%
(5:39) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:09) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to GB 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 40 for 11 yards (44-C.Bruener). PENALTY on PIT-51-N.Herbig, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 40.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 19 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(9:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to GB 38, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 44 for 6 yards (44-C.Bruener).
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Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%
(5:31) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 7 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(4:02) 17-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 54 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf to GB 40 for 14 yards (99-B.Sorrell).
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Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(13:36) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 32 for 11 yards (53-C.Goode; 87-H.Rucci).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(11:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to MIA 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(4:07) 31-O.Gordon right guard to ATL 7 for 1 yard (21-M.Hughes; 31-X.Watts). Atlanta challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 67%
(:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-T.Allgeier to MIA 34 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 87%
(13:03) 39-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 48%
(10:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew. PENALTY on ATL-84-F.Franks, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at ATL 8.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(8:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to ATL 49, Center-49-L.McCullough. 6-M.Washington to ATL 40 for 9 yards (35-N.Brooks).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(6:18) 47-R.Patterson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:50) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 6-M.Washington to MIA 18 for no gain (28-M.Ford).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 57%
(13:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(11:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to ATL 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 43 for 8 yards (27-E.Bonner; 49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on ATL-84-F.Franks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 35.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(2:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 4-K.Hodge.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 65Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(11:04) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 37 for 2 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%
(8:41) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(8:03) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-K.Hodge to ATL 49 for 8 yards (26-R.Douglas).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 27 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%
(1:09) (Shotgun) 0-Z.Wilson pass short right to 5-J.Wright to ATL 27 for no gain (21-M.Hughes).
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Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EPp(convert) 70%
(11:47) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 19 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(2:24) 17-R.Wright punts 50 yards to LAC 41, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%
(9:00) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 17 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%
(6:10) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 30%
(4:12) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to LAC 12, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Davis to LAC 22 for 10 yards (0-I.Pace). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 73%
(:03) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%
(10:05) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:10) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%
(7:04) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 63Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 37%
(6:23) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson [20-C.Hart].
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Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 27 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%
(2:00) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 59%
(6:15) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 43%
(:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to NYG 41 for 5 yards (24-D.Belton).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%
(12:57) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYG 9 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). New York Giants challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 27%
(8:01) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to PHI 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(6:19) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to NYG 34, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%
(2:57) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(13:22) 12-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to PHI 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 24 for 17 yards (47-N.Hewitt).
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Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%
(7:08) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 13 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(:23) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%
(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(10:17) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(8:20) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 35 for -2 yards (49-B.Carter).
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:02) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to CIN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 65 yards to NYJ 9, Center-46-W.Wagner. 18-I.Williams ran ob at NYJ 26 for 17 yards (37-P.Jules). ** Injury Update: CIN-37-P.Jules has returned to the game.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 28Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%
(12:17) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 15Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 95%
(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 16-T.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(:04) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 48%
(12:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. ** Injury Update: CIN-44-D.Knight has returned to the game.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(10:58) 8-R.Rehkow punts 52 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-W.Wagner. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 36 for 12 yards (37-P.Jules; 38-D.Ivey). PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 24.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(6:15) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 28%
(8:41) 7-J.Fields pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert to CIN 27 for 24 yards (49-B.Carter).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 16 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(7:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to NYJ 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 42 for 21 yards (25-T.Brooks).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 55 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%
(8:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud right guard to SF 23 for 1 yard (48-T.Bethune).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%
(5:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:47) 7-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Noel to HOU 13 for -3 yards (33-S.Neal).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%
(15:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(13:32) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(6:04) 7-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Noel to HOU 20 for 14 yards (88-J.Tonges).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%
(1:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 30%
(13:45) 7-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(9:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:05) 7-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 54 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 54%
(4:23) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to SF 1, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 93 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(1:02) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to 50, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.
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Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 53 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%
(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to HOU 44 for 9 yards (5-J.Pitre).
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Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%
(2:49) 32-K.Kroeger punts 33 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
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Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(7:28) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NO 1 for no gain (58-C.Rumph; 93-N.Shepherd).
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Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 47%
(4:05) 32-K.Kroeger punts 33 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
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Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:58) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to NO 26, Center-86-E.Deckers. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 34 for 8 yards (32-J.Hayes).
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Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(10:12) 44-S.Tucker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 NO 4th & 17 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(8:31) 32-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to TB 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-K.Johnson to TB 45 for 8 yards (44-I.Stalbird).
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Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 69%
(4:07) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%
(14:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60%
(11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (23-T.Smith).
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Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 60% p(FG) 71%
(9:32) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 24 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%
(4:57) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Stoll.
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Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to NO 19, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 74 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles right guard to NO 30 for 4 yards (8-S.Dennis).
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Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 42 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 57%
(:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 10-B.Cooks ran ob at TB 31 for 11 yards (21-B.Morrison).
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Q1 IND 4th & 17 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%
(9:48) 12-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 12 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:17) 3-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to IND 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 27 for 20 yards (3-J.Hekker).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(6:25) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to IND 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 37 for 13 yards (88-D.Martin-Robinson; 30-K.Brooks).
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Q2 IND 4th & 19 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(5:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 42%
(1:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to IND 15, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 57%
(11:30) 3-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:45) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to IND 26, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 52%
(1:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 46 for -10 yards (99-D.Buckner).
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Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74% p(FG) 69%
(:12) 28-J.Taylor left end pushed ob at TEN 33 for 4 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 16 at the 16Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 21% p(FG) 95%
(7:01) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle intended for 17-C.Dike INTERCEPTED by 38-C.Lammons at IND -3. Touchback.
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Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(5:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 3 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%
(2:40) 2-T.Spears left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
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Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 59Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(7:41) 60-H.Nourzad and 74-J.Taylor reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 46 for 5 yards (20-Q.Martin; 54-B.Wagner).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 56%
(1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to KC 35 for 5 yards (35-J.Watson). (Virtual Measurement).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%
(10:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 17-T.McLaurin [32-N.Bolton].
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Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%
(10:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(8:19) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to KC 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-N.Remigio to KC 25 for 11 yards (35-P.Butler).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(6:59) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to KC 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-N.Remigio to KC 39 for 16 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on KC-31-J.Bassa, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 25.
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Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 62 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(2:29) 14-M.Araiza punts 56 yards to WAS 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 83-J.Lane to WAS 20 for 14 yards (31-J.Bassa).