Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 51%
(10:13) 49-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to IND 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.
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Q1 IND 4th & 11 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to ARI 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 44 for 12 yards (55-C.Muma).
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Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 59%
(:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ARI 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(14:12) 49-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to IND 47, Center-46-A.Brewer. 6-A.Gould to IND 45 for -2 yards (36-K.Crawford). PENALTY on IND-38-C.Lammons, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at IND 47.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%
(1:59) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.
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Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%
(4:36) 12-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%
(9:36) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-49-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 9 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu].
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Q1 ATL 4th & 17 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(6:37) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-L.McCullough. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 26 for 11 yards (28-M.Ford; 42-J.Woods).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(5:32) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to ATL 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 35%
(8:21) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to ATL 5, impetus ends at ATL 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-D.Williams.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 77%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 82-C.Washington (7-Ta.Johnson).
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Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:22) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to ATL 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:21) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to BUF 31, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(6:17) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 41 for 14 yards (25-T.Allgeier). PENALTY on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 30.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 47%
(1:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 26-Ty.Johnson.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%
(12:31) 39-J.Romo 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (50-G.Rousseau), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by BUF-37-J.Hancock at BUF 39.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 49%
(10:24) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to ATL 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 64%
(8:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to BUF 26, Center-49-L.McCullough. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 33 for 7 yards (23-D.Hellams; 4-K.Hodge).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:55) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to ATL 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 28 for 11 yards (44-J.Andreessen). PENALTY on ATL-23-D.Hellams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 27.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 15 at the 15 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%
(1:47) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 79%
(10:45) 16-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 77%
(2:30) 16-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 75%
(5:35) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 15-R.Odunze (4-F.Luvu).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 73%
(1:14) 16-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(:25) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 16 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 66%
(12:03) 16-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 18 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 88%
(8:09) 16-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 34%
(4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 26-J.McNichols to CHI 34 for 13 yards (90-D.Robinson).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%
(15:00) 16-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Payne), Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor, recovered by CHI-16-J.Moody at WAS 37.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%
(8:04) 10-T.Way punts 30 yards to CHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 64%
(6:12) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to WAS 30, Center-46-S.Daly. 83-J.Lane to WAS 39 for 9 yards (48-D.Jackson; 36-J.Owens).
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Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 26Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 84%
(10:51) 10-J.Love up the middle to CIN 24 for 2 yards (58-J.Ossai; 49-B.Carter).
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Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(6:46) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to GB 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on GB-16-B.Melton, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at GB 8.
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Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%
(14:20) 35-L.Havrisik 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:36) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to GB 11, Center-46-W.Wagner. 87-R.Doubs to GB 16 for 5 yards (42-O.Burks).
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Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(10:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to CIN 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 15-C.Jones to CIN 37 for 13 yards (33-E.Williams; 16-B.Melton).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(8:22) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:01) 8-R.Rehkow punts 54 yards to GB 8, Center-46-W.Wagner. 87-R.Doubs to GB 17 for 9 yards (26-T.Anderson; 34-S.Perine).
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Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 46%
(1:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 35 yards to CIN 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 49Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 28%
(:01) 2-E.McPherson 67 yard field goal is No Good, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. 25-K.Nixon at GB -5 to GB 32 for 37 yards (71-A.Mims; 74-J.Rivers).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(4:50) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-21-N.Hobbs, Defensive Holding, declined.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%
(10:47) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 19 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%
(4:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 21 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 90%
(1:56) 35-L.Havrisik 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 38 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 57%
(:46) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 85%
(10:59) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 19 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(8:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 85-K.Williams to CLE 41 for 47 yards (5-R.Jenkins). PENALTY on PIT-40-J.Peppers, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(4:02) 3-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%
(:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 21 yards to PIT 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 75%
(11:06) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(9:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to PIT 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 85-K.Williams to PIT 21 for 7 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 79%
(3:43) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(14:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to PIT 6, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 85-K.Williams to PIT 21 for 15 yards (5-R.Jenkins; 28-T.Avery).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 69%
(4:13) 25-A.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%
(13:47) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short left to 16-I.Bond to PIT 38 for 7 yards (26-B.Echols). PIT-26-B.Echols was injured during the play.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 79%
(11:59) 56-L.Wypler and 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to PIT 24 for 6 yards (24-J.Porter; 25-D.Elliott).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 96%
(9:33) 25-A.Szmyt 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 50%
(7:19) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 16-I.Bond pushed ob at CLE 25 for 9 yards (55-C.Holcomb). PENALTY on PIT-15-B.Skowronek, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 25.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 58 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.08 EPp(convert) 29%
(4:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Jeudy [96-D.Ekuale].
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Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 36 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 66%
(3:44) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 14 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(1:27) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete short middle to 44-H.Fannin.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 54%
(13:30) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to CAR 24, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-38-A.Clark.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 96%
(9:11) 10-R.Fitzgerald 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(4:51) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(15:00) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 40-H.Luepke for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 76%
(4:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to CAR 22 for 8 yards (2-M.Jackson). Penalty on CAR-2-M.Jackson, Defensive Holding, declined.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 59%
(:25) 10-R.Fitzgerald 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(9:53) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CAR 14, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-H.Renfrow to CAR 14 for no gain (38-A.Clark). PENALTY on CAR-22-L.Ransom, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at CAR 14.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(5:38) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-J.Moreno-Cropper MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 17. 16-J.Moreno-Cropper to DAL 27 for 10 yards (48-T.Incoom).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(9:23) 17-B.Aubrey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(8:31) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to DAL 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-J.Moreno-Cropper to DAL 46 for 9 yards (20-D.Dallas).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 18 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:14) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to CAR 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 40 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 50%
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 72%
(11:05) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 39Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 60%
(7:08) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%
(4:59) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 39%
(1:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram pushed ob at NYJ 36 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(13:35) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to DEN 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims to DEN 21 for 5 yards (89-J.Ruckert; 27-M.Moore).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 34%
(9:27) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:55) 14-A.McNamara punts 53 yards to DEN 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims to DEN 41 for 6 yards (27-M.Moore).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 44%
(3:29) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 29 yards to NYJ 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(1:04) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-B.Hall. 20-B.Hall up the middle to NYJ 38 for 1 yard (47-K.Reid).
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%
(10:29) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(8:59) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 42 for 12 yards (46-A.Prentice; 26-D.Key).
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 44%
(5:13) 14-A.McNamara punts 42 yards to DEN 3, impetus ends at DEN 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-K.Nwangwu.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:49) 14-A.McNamara punts 49 yards to DEN 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:15) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to NYJ 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 24 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(15:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to DEN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(13:42) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 39 for 19 yards (48-M.Fraboni). PENALTY on NYJ-29-J.Brownlee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 71%
(10:23) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to DEN 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(5:09) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 74 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(3:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 58 yards to DEN 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 89 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(2:33) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 59 yards to NYJ 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 18-I.Williams pushed ob at NYJ 43 for 13 yards (6-P.Locke).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 44 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%
(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
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Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(5:24) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%
(1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 52%
(10:14) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to DET 38 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell).
-
Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%
(7:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-X.Worthy (12-T.Harper) [34-A.Anzalone].
-
Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 41%
(2:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown [51-M.Danna].
-
Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64%
(:17) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to KC 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
-
Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 31%
(6:50) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to KC 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
-
Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 63%
(3:41) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to DET 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:26) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to KC 30, Center-49-H.Hatten. 81-N.Remigio to DET 49 for 21 yards (3-J.Fox).
-
Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 15 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(2:29) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
-
Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 64 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 75%
(2:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 33%
(12:26) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to MIA 48 for 2 yards (3-K.Britt).
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 94%
(7:55) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
-
Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(6:27) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to LAC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-T.Still to LAC 29 for 11 yards (82-D.Eskridge; 49-J.Cardona).
-
Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 96%
(:39) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 62%
(12:02) 47-R.Patterson 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(8:42) 11-C.Dicker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%
(4:34) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(1:48) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to MIA 18, Center-41-R.Lovato, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor.
-
Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%
(:04) 47-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
-
Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(2:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to LAC 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-C.Hart ran ob at LAC 21 for no gain.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 94%
(12:50) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:30) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to MIA 10, Center-41-R.Lovato. 6-M.Washington to MIA 18 for 8 yards (36-J.Taylor).
-
Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 15 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%
(:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
-
Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%
(7:26) 33-T.Loop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
-
Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%
(2:27) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
-
Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 67%
(14:16) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers [0-B.Young].
-
Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%
(9:53) 16-J.Karty 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
-
Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 19%
(5:10) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback. PENALTY on LA-2-J.McCollough, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.
-
Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(3:38) 42-E.Evans punts 55 yards to BAL 33, Center-47-A.Ward. 83-L.Wester pushed ob at LA 32 for 35 yards (42-E.Evans).
-
Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(:12) 67-C.Bullock reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end to LA 3 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse).
-
Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 69%
(12:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 23-K.Williams to BAL 3 for 30 yards. Penalty on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
-
Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(13:33) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 11 for -5 yards (sack split by 40-T.Buchanan and 32-T.Simpson).
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 23%
(8:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle to LA 32 for 19 yards (26-K.Kinchens).
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 15 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(3:51) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [0-B.Young].
-
Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 81 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 73 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to BAL 38 for 11 yards (3-K.Curl).
-
Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 58 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(:28) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins [8-J.Verse].
-
Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%
(12:54) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%
(5:09) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 64%
(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 93%
(1:55) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 71%
(11:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 8-S.Diggs to NO 22 for 14 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
-
Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(7:29) 36-A.Borregales 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
-
Q3 NO 4th & 17 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 44%
(4:23) 32-K.Kroeger punts 23 yards to NE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.
-
Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(2:49) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NO 27, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 39 for 12 yards (91-E.Ponder).
-
Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%
(13:46) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
-
Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 55%
(5:58) 17-B.Baringer punts 33 yards to NO 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 62 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:55) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to NE 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 25-M.Jones to NE 21 for 6 yards (44-I.Stalbird).
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 24Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%
(12:03) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
-
Q1 PHI 4th & 16 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:49) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to NYG 19, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 34 for 15 yards (54-J.Trotter).
-
Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(15:00) 12-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to PHI 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 26 for 7 yards (31-N.Jones).
-
Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(8:31) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYG 1 for 2 yards (97-D.Lawrence; 0-B.Burns).
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 59%
(13:50) 12-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to PHI 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson. PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at PHI 13.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 49%
(12:15) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to NYG 44, Center-57-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.
-
Q3 PHI 4th & 16 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(5:33) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 80-G.Olszewski ran ob at NYG 10 for no gain.
-
Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%
(1:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to PHI 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EPp(convert) 66%
(14:09) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to NYG 21, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 34 for 13 yards (21-S.Brown).
-
Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:03) 12-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to PHI 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 34 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton; 53-D.Muasau).
-
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 89Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(8:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 20 for 9 yards (24-D.Belton).
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(11:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at JAX 13.
-
Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
-
Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(5:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to JAX 24, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington to JAX 34 for 10 yards (44-C.Surratt; 28-N.Pritchett). PENALTY on SEA-38-B.Russell, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 34.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(10:40) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 18 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(8:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to SEA 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-T.Horton to SEA 39 for no gain (47-D.Gardeck; 46-R.Matiscik).
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%
(6:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 26 yards to SEA 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(5:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to JAX 22, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 77%
(2:00) 5-D.Brown right end pushed ob at SEA 24 for 7 yards (24-S.Griffin).
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 18 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 75%
(1:03) 39-C.Little 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 35Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 69%
(:15) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-T.Horton pushed ob at SEA 19 for 6 yards (95-B.Green).
-
Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to JAX 27, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 33 for 6 yards (48-T.Knight). PENALTY on JAX-25-R.Lane, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 33.
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 32%
(:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 84-H.Long to SEA 38 for 11 yards (42-D.Thomas; 8-C.Bryant) [0-D.Lawrence].
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 79%
(13:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end to SEA 26 for 4 yards (42-D.Thomas).
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(11:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-81-E.Saubert.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(9:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(7:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to JAX 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-28-N.Pritchett, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 16.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(5:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
-
Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 79 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(4:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to JAX 28, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-P.Washington to JAX 36 for 8 yards (81-E.Saubert).
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 18 at the 72 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(3:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-An.Johnson.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EPp(convert) 75%
(12:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to SF 16, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.
-
Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 70%
(7:58) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 17 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to SF 2, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-S.Moore to SF 14 for 12 yards (32-J.Hayes).
-
Q1 SF 4th & 14 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(1:42) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to TB 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to SF 3, Center-86-E.Deckers. 9-S.Moore to SF 16 for 13 yards (81-R.Miller).
-
Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 65%
(2:09) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%
(7:30) 18-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 31Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 76%
(8:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
-
Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 72%
(5:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at TB 14. 35-J.Dean to TB 20 for 6 yards (88-J.Tonges). PENALTY on SF-71-T.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 20.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 27 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 83%
(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
-
Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 62 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling pushed ob at SF 41 for 3 yards (25-J.Parrish).
-
Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EPp(convert) 69%
(12:59) 3-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to LV 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
-
Q1 LV 4th & 19 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 79%
(4:11) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 17 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(15:00) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to LV 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-A.Bachman to LV 35 for 25 yards (36-J.Chestnut).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 50%
(13:34) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(11:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to LV 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 45 for 18 yards (54-D.Mausi).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:46) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to TEN 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
-
Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(3:02) 3-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to LV 41, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
-
Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to TEN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 46Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 47%
(11:48) (No Huddle) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-M.Mayer to TEN 35 for 11 yards (38-L.Sneed).
-
Q3 TEN 4th & 14 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%
(1:10) 14-M.Wright 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:01) 3-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to LV 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-A.Bachman to LV 30 for 4 yards (52-J.Williams).
-
Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%
(7:17) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 62%
(5:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 5-E.Ayomanor to LV 29 for 11 yards (22-E.Stokes; 44-T.Eichenberg).
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Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 41 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%
(2:45) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to TEN 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 95 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.27 EPp(convert) 31%
(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo to TEN 25 for 20 yards (11-J.Chinn).